TUMI Transport Outlook 1.5˚C –
A global scenario to decarbonise transport

The transport sector accounts for almost one quarter of global energy related CO2 emissions.

Climate action in transport is urgently needed.
However, a clear-cut transformation path, is missing.

To close this gap TUMI and the University of Technology Sydney developed a robust scenario study: the TUMI Transport Outlook 1.5˚C.

Achieving sustainable transport means acting today

Undertaking urgent climate action today will limit global warming. The time to decarbonize transport is now: We have 99 months from 2021 to 2030 to take significant action.

The TUMI Transport Outlook 1.5˚C provides answers on how to decarbonise transport until 2050. Watch the key takeaways now:

Avoid. Shift. Improve.

The TUMI Transport Outlook 1.5˚C for the first time maps a climate compatible transport sector. It considers three scenarios: a reference case, a 2.0˚C and a 1.5˚C pathway.

The policy recommendations in the report build around three important pillars:

  1. Avoiding the need to travel;
  2. Shifting to more efficient modes of transport;
  3. Improving efficiency through vehicle technology.

Scroll down below for further insights.

World: final energy consumption transport under three scenarios [PJ/a]

Phase out internal combustion engines by 2030

Electric mobility powered by renewable energy is the future. We can’t achieve global decarbonisation of transport without it.

To get there, we need to shift into high gear and phase out the sale of internal combustion engine vehicles by 2030. This requires government policies and regulations that mandate efficiency improvments and promote e-mobility.

Powertrain split passenger cars & busses by regions* in 2050 – 1.5˚C case

* Regional breakdown based on IEA World regions

Elevate walking and cycling

We need to invest in pedestrian and cycling infrastructure to power everyone’s mobility. Cycling and walking, especially in growing cities, can lead the way in sustainable mobility.

Cities from Copenhagen to Amsterdam have shown that you can curb passenger vehicle usage by implementing quality infrastructure for cyclists and pedestrians. Prioritizing active mobility and compact urban planning should be at the heart of cities’ agendas.

Double public transport capacity by 2030

Cities need to invest in their public transport systems to get people back on board. We need to double the capacity, enhance service quality and maintain affordability.

Integrating public transport with shared mobility and last mile transport services can support inter-modality and active mobility.

World Cumulative Transport CO2 emissions [2020-2050] by Sector 1.5°C *

* Regional breakdown based on IEA World regions

Electrify at least 70 % of railways by 2030

The technology to power trains electrically already exists. Let’s use it.

The pathway to 1.5˚C shows we need to electrify trains. This means phasing out all diesel locomotives by 2050 and curbing domestic cargo emissions by shifting freight transport from trucks to trains.

Electrification shares of passenger and freight rail by regions in 2019 *
Electrification shares of passenger and freight rail by regions in 2030 – 1.5˚C case *

* Regional breakdown based on IEA World regions

Prioritize electricity as the primary fuel for transport

No matter the scenario, to limit greenhouse gas emissions, all transport fuels need to be carbon free by 2050. A switch to electric mobility will drastically reduce the global need for fossil fuels.

At the same time, we need a corresponding investment in renewable energy to power the transition to electric mobility. Renewables in transport are the only way to meet the 1.5°C pathway.

Electric performed passenger-km across all transport modes in the 1.5˚C scenario (incl. Hydrogen) *

* Regional breakdown based on IEA World regions

Read, reach out and share!

Learn more about how we can make this transport transformation a reality by reading the full report and spread the message.

Report by the Transformative Urban Mobility Initiative (TUMI)
Prepared by the University of Technology Sydney
for the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ)
on behalf of German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)

In cooperation with the TUMI Partners

Asian Development Bank (ADB) | C40 Cities – Climate Leadership Group | Development Bank of Latin America (CAF) | Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) | Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH | ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability | Institute for Transportation & Development Policy (ITDP)| Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KFW) | SLOCAT Partnership on Sustainable Low Carbon Transport | UN-Habitat | World Resources Institute (WRI)

Supported by

World Bank (WB) | International Transport Forum (ITF) | Eindhoven University of Technology (TU/e)

Report by the Transformative Urban Mobility Initiative (TUMI). Prepared by the University of Technology Sydney for the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) on behalf of German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ).

In cooperation with the TUMI Partners

Asian Development Bank (ADB) | C40 Cities – Climate Leadership Group | Development Bank of Latin America (CAF) | Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) | Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH | ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability | Institute for Transportation & Development Policy (ITDP)| Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KFW) | SLOCAT Partnership on Sustainable Low Carbon Transport | UN-Habitat | World Resources Institute (WRI)

Supported by

World Bank (WB) | International Transport Forum (ITF) | Eindhoven University of Technology (TU/e)

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